Lets Talk Nord Stream Sabotage Implications
Serious talk needs to be had by all
You’ve likely been swamped by the endless array of news articles discussing the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipeline sabotage. I doubt any have gone into meaningful depth on consequences besides, ‘oh no, World War 3’ and ‘argh, Europe is going to get ruined’.
Firstly, let us review the evidence that indicates sabotage, and see if we can identify a suspect and motive.
Proving Sabotage
According to German paper Der Spiegel (via translation), Seismologists reading vibration sensitive equipment - typically used for earthquakes - have interpreted the readings to mean an explosive with 500 kilograms of TNT must have been used:
[…] it was calculated that explosive devices with an effect comparable to that of 500 kilograms of TNT must have been used to destroy the tubes […]
500 kilograms of TNT explosive force, according to this TNT calculator, would be roughly equal a 620 kilogram round. Der Spiegel suspects only a State actor could have access to this much explosive force.
They would need it, too. According to Javier Blas of Bloomberg, the Nord Stream pipes are made of 4.1cm (1.6in) thick steel, and has an additional 6 to 11cm (2.3 to 4.3in) steel-reinforced concrete layer.
Although terrorists have been caught with almost similar amounts of explosive, we can rule out everyday terrorists on this one, as the pipelines are roughly 70 to 90 meters below sea level, and improv explosives simply would not work well underwater.
They lie on the seabed between 70 and 90 meters (230 feet and 295 feet) deep.
Whilst it is possible for a human to go that deep without a submarine - Popular Mechanics suggests officially the maximum a human can go is 1,752 feet (534 meters) with US Navy divers hinting they can go further - there were two sites hit in two separate locations, suggesting someone with the ability to move quickly mechanically.
Plus hauling 500 kilograms+ of explosive is difficult, which is not something you can just casually swim with, without rapidly sinking and potentially pressurising yourself too quickly and damaging your lungs.
The first leak occurred on the 26th Sept on Nord Stream 2, and two more leaks occurred on the 27th at Nord Stream 1:
Whoever did this, had planned it, because they chose the shutdown and inoperative - and thus, less likely to raise the alarm - Nord Stream 2 first. So there was more than one operative. Quoting the Michigan article again:
The leaks all were in international waters. Two were within the Danish exclusive economic zone while the third is in the Swedish equivalent.
Those are fairly cold waters. You’d not want to be particularly exposed to them for so long. So the odds it is a super-strong, well-trained, cold-resistant civilian terrorist diver is very low, which means we’re dealing more with State actors.
Droning On
The US Navy back in August 2021 had announced they were purchasing underwater drones. Just yesterday, the US Navy were complaining about shortcomings of their ‘Orca’ mine laying underwater drone, where the first prototype was unveiled back in April. Seems odd they suddenly happen to know the issues with their mine laying underwater drone barely two days after an underwater explosion occurred.
The US Navy even remarked:
The Navy determined that Orca “was critical to fulfilling an emergent need,”
I wonder what suddenly emerging need that was?
Getting Political
Curiously, the timing of this explosion occurred shortly after Giorgia Meloni won in the Italian elections (who media outlets oddly keep calling ‘Far-Right’ despite the fact she is centre-right). Why would this matter?
Well, the EU threatened it had the “tools” if the ‘wrong’ government (read: Giorgia Meloni) got into power, and the new ‘populist’ (if it can be even called that, as it was a coalition) government called for an end to Russian sanctions. They weren’t the only ones, so was Hungary’s PM Orban, who even predicted the sanctions would be lifted.
Blowing up Nord Stream 1 and 2 guarantees that no-one can undo the sanctions against Russia, even if they wanted to. Which naturally benefits the US, EU and NATO, and Russia, not so much.
Polish Profiteering
Pro-war Polish MEP (Minister for European Parliament) Radek Sikorski had posted on Twitter an image of the leaking Nord Stream pipeline and wrote “Thank you, USA”:
You’d be forgiven if you thought this was sarcastic, as intent doesn’t convey well over text. But a quick scan of Sikorski’s account shows he’s a through-and-through globalist, complete with image of him grinning at US President Joe Biden as his banner image.
The Tweet was so embarassing - effectively outing the US as complicit - that it was shortly afterwards deleted, telling us far more than if it had just stayed up:
Oops. The CIA somehow had psychic powers of convenience and ‘just knew’ an attack on Nord Stream 1 and 2 was about to occur, but didn’t provide proof of the perpetrators (likely because they themselves were responsible).
More level heads on Twitter asked why either Russia or Ukraine (or even Europe) would do such a thing:
Of course they wouldn’t. Europe already know energy is at crisis point, Ukraine isn’t going to annoy their European supporters, and Russia isn’t going to damage their own costly infrastructure that generates revenue when they have a history of just adjusting the taps (see: “Why German Gas Flow Dropped To 20% Amidst An Energy Crisis”, “All Nord Stream 1 Supplies Have Officially Stopped”, “Russia Resumes Nord Stream 1 …at 40% capacity”).
So blowing their own supplies up does not fit Russian Modus Operandi. Cheaper to just turn off the taps. They can invent any reason and it doesn’t run the risk of heightening war tensions with destruction.
Of course, if Russia wanted to threaten Europe… why not just blow up European pipelines that only Europe controls? Even more conveniently, a Poland-Norway (for the Polish MEP said ‘thank you’ for the US eliminating the competition) Baltic sea gas pipeline opened on the same day the Nord Stream 1 and 2 were blown up. Don’t you think Russia would have preferred to have targeted that one instead?
In response to the attack on Nord Stream 1 and 2, Russian government outlet Intel Slava Z hinted Russia would retaliate for the damage done - which implies they’re not the culprits:
Regardless of pros and cons, Western media immediately ignored the fact Russia could turn off the gas taps at any time (why even damage Nord Stream 2 that wasn’t even in use?) and immediately tried to point the finger at Russia, with, naturally, zero proof. Something even Substackers fell for.
Nor-way Out Of This
Of course, whoever sabotaged it forgot to consider Norway’s total gas output. Just because they built the gas pipeline doesn’t mean they have sufficient quantities of gas to provide.
Back in January 19th 2022 - before the war broke out - Pfizer-owned Reuters reported that Norway’s gas capacity could not replace the sheer quantities of Russian gas. Worldometers estimates Russia’s export is 6,550,933 Million Cubic Feet (MMcf), where-as Norway’s (in 2015 as that’s the latest data they show) was 3,954,221 MMcf.
Note this is pre-existing export (not capacity), and does not mean they have room to take on the extra left from Russia.
In The Daily Beagle’s “We Need To Talk About The World Crisis”, I discussed the importance gas plays in gas peaker plants that deal with surges in demand for electrical power.
What I didn’t discuss, was something I wrote about months back: “Understanding the Impact of Fuel on Food Prices”, where I mention natural gas’ other use (besides heating homes and cooking food): producing fertiliser to grow crops with.
The Implications
Way back in July, The Daily Beagle wrote that The Death Of The EU Draws Near, indicating that the EU was already in eyewatering levels of debt. The inability to afford fertiliser to produce crops with would send food prices through the roof. A crisis of incomprehensible scale.
Coupled with the economic collapse due to an energy shortage and electrical grid that can no longer function correctly without peaker plants operating, Europe could have always cried mercy and surrendered on the sanctions to recover some semblance of status quo, like Italy were considering.
Instead, a malicious third party has taken the choice out of their hands and forced them down the path of kamikaze. The Death of the EU is, at this point, guaranteed. The sheer number of economical processes that depend upon a timely supply of natural gas which are vital (not merely luxury) is overwhelming.
‘Best’ case scenario the entire manufacturing scene collapses with only just enough food rationed out to individuals carefully as former first world states occupy third world status. Worst case scenario - like the European governments have been predicting - all out civil war breaks out as those desperate for food tear down governments responsible for this.
Underdog’s Opinion
It is unlikely to happen immediately. People forget things like social collapses happen over many years, not on a single day, and the public are slow to act - sometimes, as the case was in Germany, not acting at all.
I anticipate the EU will just about survive the winter of 2022, a “mild” winter, but will be dead man walking by early 2023. I do not anticipate the EU’s meaningful survival beyond the Winter of 2023.
I would not be surprised if such desperation resulted in the use of nukes. The destruction by a third party of Russian equipment is an overt act of war, no longer plausibly deniable, and means we stand on the edge of War World 3, with no gas supply.
The goose is well and truly… uncooked.
Meanwhile, in ignorance land, CBS somehow ignored the fact everything is on fire and just screamed non-stop about the future climate being impacted by the methane, as if that is the worst possible thing. Truly a head-in-the-sand moment. Won’t be a climate left if it is nuked, CBS.
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I have mentioned to people at work (most of whom are only obliquely aware of the event) that the significance of the sabotage of these pipelines should not be underestimated. As the extent of the covid injection disaster comes to light, at what point will the world decide that they are better off without the USA?
Hugely informative, thanks!
Blimey, you really are a one-person news agency! How do you find the time to research and write all this? I hope you get more subscribers very soon. You deserve them!