He seems to take the view Wagner had 'objectives', but Wagner's pay packet comes from the Russian government.
Having done an update, I'm confident the fake 'coup' was designed to distract from Putin making Martial Law declarations (can now put people in jail for violations).
If you want to distract from a crime, make an even bigger scene. Cornerstone of every major heist, right? Get every police unit dispatched to some major scene somewhere else whilst you do a heist on the side on the low-down, disappear before anyone notices.
This comes closer to my take. I hypothesise that Prigozhyn is bulking up to rid Russia for a couple of incompetent generals and the head of defense, a task that is too awkward for Putin. Evidence? None, but for 20 years Russia has suffered from a bunch of Pattons at the top, and that this showed a year ago. The new generation of missiles show this influence was defeated but not on the battlefield. Meanwhile, the enture US retains this disease so, all good.
The field is still open given how early days it is, but I think what sold it for me was Prigozhin was on Sky news, holding a casual chat with some of his fellows... with a cup of coffee, on a bench in what looked like this glass section in the middle of an apartment block in a park area. No helmet, of course, that would interfere with the coffee cup.
I think pretty much any military analyst being honest would say not only is that militarily unsound given, again, snipers can easily occupy any part of an urban building and cap the dome of someone's head, but the sheer casual nature of the supposed 'rebellion' just seemed so off.
Then there's the hilarious and fake-news sound remarking that boxes of money were just conveniently found in Prigozhin's office (see: https://t.me/intelslava/49304). Because that's how you secretly bribe someone, using large conspicuous boxes with money signs printed on them stored in an office (and not say, untraceable gold bars or account transfers to proxies).
One thing for certain, it isn't a coup. Prigozhin was freed from jail by Putin (edit: a long time ago), and it'd be like saying Matt Hancock was leading an armed rebellion against Boris Johnson. Or Dan Andrews plotting to overthrow Xi Jinping.
You nailed it, as usual. The West is desperate to show Russia in a bad light, especially as it is now undeniably clear that the US/NATO has lost the proxy war and Russia/Wagner has won, the G7 is being eclipsed by BRICS, a dozen other nations are exploring new alliances; the dollar is doomed, and the US needs to recruit more soldiers for its (Rand Report 2015) scheduled war with China in the New Year. That the insane asylum known comically as the White House has no ammunition, no reliable hypersonic missiles, a flotilla of painfully vulnerable aircraft carriers, and allies saluting mechanically as they run backwards towards parochial hills, means they must throw mud instead of spears. One might even feel sorry for them, even as we prepare the nooses. Well done, Underdog. As usual, (smirk). Take that, Rupert Murdoch.
...you put on fabric to keep rain out of a *horizontal* tank barrel (apparently a tank that is weak to rain but can handle the muddy, rainy, wet conditions of Ukraine)... that you're going to proceed to shoot holes through letting said rain in?
It is clear the tank came out of storage and they obviously left the dust cover on.
Hey Underdog, why did you exclude this comment I made?
"sorry man i'm a bit busy right now. a lot of things will become more clear in the coming hours/days. I appreciate that you are asking these questions. but i'm a bit busy at the moment. i'm sure you understand. i'll try my best to provide useful info on the blog"
YOU messaged ME. I gave you brief, polite answers -- as I was extremely busy. This is a great way to show your gratitude.
Am I not allowed to have a different opinion? And this means you will share our private messages, to punish me for this grave sin? Is that it?
There are many compelling alternative theories, and your own theory is based on extremely scant evidence.
Yes, I did message you. The article made clear I asked you if you could find someone to help translate the Prigozhin interview.
I could have certainly included the part where you said you were 'busy', but then I'd be forced to point out you were waxing philosophical questions about the coup on Twitter afterwards rather than investigating. It felt too petty to raise in a news article, and surprisingly I wasn't trying to shit on you (hence no name calling); I was genuinely confused.
And you're allowed whatever opinion you choose. Do you see the context, though, Edward? You encourage Substackers like myself to distrust globalist Putin. I distrust him, enough I want to 'go to source', get the original translations of Prigozhin, get them independently translated... and suddenly you're telling me it's 'irrelevant' and to 'just read putin's speech'?
"this means you will share our private messages"
Have you not also shared people's private messages, Edward? Should I cover up the truth because it is private? Should I have remained silent on the EMA's corruption because the leaks were private and marked confidential? Why would you want to keep your views secret anyway, Edward?
"your own theory is based on extremely scant evidence."
Seems like a very weak strawman, from a man entrusting Putin's speech and the comments of a Twitter poster.
Did Putin allow Russian whistleblowers to sit peacefully in exile, Edward? Didn't KGB agents travel all the way to the UK to give Litvinenko poisoned tea for simply disclosing the truth? And yet, we're supposed to believe Putin's "stab in the back" remark results in mere exile?
What's the legal punishment for treason in Russia, Edward? Is it the death penalty?
I bet it's the death penalty.
The coup is staged. I don't know why you're trying to spread FUD to the contrary.
Shameful that you are trying to dunk on me, simply for sharing my personal view, in a private conversation. I've done more than any other person writing in the English language to expose what Putin's government has done to its people over the past 2 years. I won't even type more.
Unfortunately our internet cooperation (which I considered fruitful and beneficial for both of us) ends here. Take care,
You took me by complete surprise by your overt and explicit trust in Putin's speech, despite publicly expressing distrust in his views, and showed a complete incuriosity in finding the truth regarding what Wagner were doing. I even asked if you could refer to me a Russian linguist and you said you were "busy", but then proceeded to wax philosophical on Twitter?
By all means you're free to boycott me for being open and honest, but I genuinely found it surprising the Edward Slavquat I knew and enjoyed was telling me to 'just read putin's speech'.
It didn't feel like a cooperation to me Edward. It felt more like I gave you insights on Russia, but when I asked for one thing to verify mainstream media reporting, I got... stonewalled?
from the comments there, Patrick Lancaster, who has been reporting for many years from the Donbass region, films the "insurgency" at Rostov: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qvFQJEyjwA
That may explain the tenuous or loose translation of Prigozhin's Telegram interview " …there is no insurgency…"
I'm taking in all sides and not any one particular ideological angle. Maybe there's a combination of political infighting, patriots vs globalists faction conflicts, exploitation of the situation maybe by Krelmin/Putin, etc
The narrative is inconsistent, because there are roadblocks set up, along with Putin heaping praise on the military for supposedly 'stopping Wagner'. Meanwhile, the "penalty" for the supposed overthrow - yet more evidence it is staged - is... employment in Russia's MoD, or a free trip to Belarus (and the trip to Belarus doesn't even imply negative connotations).
All criminal charges dropped. If Prigozhin was "popular" he could have waltzed in, but he accepted the free trip to Belarus... because reasons?
It smells. The coup is obviously false flag. The argument also doesn't stack; if it's so safe why even bother taking tanks. But if it's unsafe, why give interviews in doorways with no helmet on, you're in a warzone.
It seems like there are lot theatrics to this which the tanks may be part of, and how it ended doesn't match the seriousness of Putin's speech at all. In terms of popularity what had been described was amongst the populous, comparing Wagner to pop-band status (hence the photo ops, etc) not political popularity, certainly not with members of the MoD. But regarding employment I wonder given what we've heard from the Russian sources translated through Rolo and Edward in the past about conscripts and competency, if this is an opportunity for Kremlin to absorb Wagner officially into the military
I think what people agree on is Russia are absorbing Wagner into the military.
They also seem to be realising that their shipping to Belarus may be a strategic move. Belarus have remarked Wagner can train their troops. It is a great way for Putin to 'disavow any and all knowledge' of their actions, whilst also maintaining the Ukrainian frontlines; essentially, delegation, of a sorts.
Russian military work on Ukraine.
Wagner work on Belarus.
What I haven't been able to verify, and keeps getting parroted a lot, is the shoot down of 8 Russian pilots. My thoughts are they 'didn't get the memo' and tried to actually engage Wagner, who supposedly have their own anti-air (I'm pretty sure Wagner don't; they were always a boots-on-the-ground soldier merc outfit). [Edit: the implication being the Russian MoD shot down the aircraft themselves lest they 'screw up the plan'.]
Putin isn't particularly bothered about the (claimed) pilot deaths, which tells me either they were a "necessary casualty" for whatever he's planning, or, given the lack of notable evidence, it simply did not happen.
I think the contrast in how Jan 6th was handled compared to this shows how suspiciously lenient the Russian government are; this is despite the fact they will dispatch whistleblowers at a moment's notice for far less.
Everything I've seen so far reinforces the false flag angle, because it has been near exclusively beneficial for Putin; control of Wagner, training for Belarus, a confused Western media.
Funny you should say this. The soldiers that didn't take part in the 'uprising', were reportedly given jobs within the MoD. The soldiers that did were simply not charged (and I presume, 'let go'?).
What's interesting is Intel Slava Z claims British Intel told Ukraine not to push a second counter-offensive during this 'coup' (see: https://t.me/intelslava/49215), which suggests they didn't think Russian resources were being divided (I.E. the frontlines were too strong to bother trying an attack).
The most plausible theory I feel fits this is that the Russian government wanted to 'fold' the Wagner group into the general Russian military, however the evidence is lacking to make a sharp conclusion on this.
Here's a guy who called this fiasco months ago: https://roloslavskiy.substack.com/p/prigozhin-wins-the-smo-lives-to-fight
Check out the archive. There is no 5-D Putin chess master. Russia is a globalist-infested hell hole...just like the US.
It sure looks to me like a fake, staged war...a "rumor of war" as a divine figure once put it.
He seems to take the view Wagner had 'objectives', but Wagner's pay packet comes from the Russian government.
Having done an update, I'm confident the fake 'coup' was designed to distract from Putin making Martial Law declarations (can now put people in jail for violations).
If you want to distract from a crime, make an even bigger scene. Cornerstone of every major heist, right? Get every police unit dispatched to some major scene somewhere else whilst you do a heist on the side on the low-down, disappear before anyone notices.
This comes closer to my take. I hypothesise that Prigozhyn is bulking up to rid Russia for a couple of incompetent generals and the head of defense, a task that is too awkward for Putin. Evidence? None, but for 20 years Russia has suffered from a bunch of Pattons at the top, and that this showed a year ago. The new generation of missiles show this influence was defeated but not on the battlefield. Meanwhile, the enture US retains this disease so, all good.
The field is still open given how early days it is, but I think what sold it for me was Prigozhin was on Sky news, holding a casual chat with some of his fellows... with a cup of coffee, on a bench in what looked like this glass section in the middle of an apartment block in a park area. No helmet, of course, that would interfere with the coffee cup.
I think pretty much any military analyst being honest would say not only is that militarily unsound given, again, snipers can easily occupy any part of an urban building and cap the dome of someone's head, but the sheer casual nature of the supposed 'rebellion' just seemed so off.
Then there's the hilarious and fake-news sound remarking that boxes of money were just conveniently found in Prigozhin's office (see: https://t.me/intelslava/49304). Because that's how you secretly bribe someone, using large conspicuous boxes with money signs printed on them stored in an office (and not say, untraceable gold bars or account transfers to proxies).
One thing for certain, it isn't a coup. Prigozhin was freed from jail by Putin (edit: a long time ago), and it'd be like saying Matt Hancock was leading an armed rebellion against Boris Johnson. Or Dan Andrews plotting to overthrow Xi Jinping.
You nailed it, as usual. The West is desperate to show Russia in a bad light, especially as it is now undeniably clear that the US/NATO has lost the proxy war and Russia/Wagner has won, the G7 is being eclipsed by BRICS, a dozen other nations are exploring new alliances; the dollar is doomed, and the US needs to recruit more soldiers for its (Rand Report 2015) scheduled war with China in the New Year. That the insane asylum known comically as the White House has no ammunition, no reliable hypersonic missiles, a flotilla of painfully vulnerable aircraft carriers, and allies saluting mechanically as they run backwards towards parochial hills, means they must throw mud instead of spears. One might even feel sorry for them, even as we prepare the nooses. Well done, Underdog. As usual, (smirk). Take that, Rupert Murdoch.
Those barrel covers are fabric and designed to be shot through...
Why waste your time putting on fabric to shoot through?
I’m not trying to be funny but, possibly to keep the rain out?
...you put on fabric to keep rain out of a *horizontal* tank barrel (apparently a tank that is weak to rain but can handle the muddy, rainy, wet conditions of Ukraine)... that you're going to proceed to shoot holes through letting said rain in?
It is clear the tank came out of storage and they obviously left the dust cover on.
Not a speck of mud on it.
It’s obviously to keep swarms of invasive avians from nest in them!
I live in Wales where the rain travels horizontally, so open doors and windows and even tank barrels offer no protection.
Russia better not invade Wales then.
Imagine needing rain protection in order to invade a country!
I apologise for trivialising a serious subject. I will now shut up.
Hey Underdog, why did you exclude this comment I made?
"sorry man i'm a bit busy right now. a lot of things will become more clear in the coming hours/days. I appreciate that you are asking these questions. but i'm a bit busy at the moment. i'm sure you understand. i'll try my best to provide useful info on the blog"
YOU messaged ME. I gave you brief, polite answers -- as I was extremely busy. This is a great way to show your gratitude.
Am I not allowed to have a different opinion? And this means you will share our private messages, to punish me for this grave sin? Is that it?
There are many compelling alternative theories, and your own theory is based on extremely scant evidence.
That's my final comment on this matter.
Yes, I did message you. The article made clear I asked you if you could find someone to help translate the Prigozhin interview.
I could have certainly included the part where you said you were 'busy', but then I'd be forced to point out you were waxing philosophical questions about the coup on Twitter afterwards rather than investigating. It felt too petty to raise in a news article, and surprisingly I wasn't trying to shit on you (hence no name calling); I was genuinely confused.
And you're allowed whatever opinion you choose. Do you see the context, though, Edward? You encourage Substackers like myself to distrust globalist Putin. I distrust him, enough I want to 'go to source', get the original translations of Prigozhin, get them independently translated... and suddenly you're telling me it's 'irrelevant' and to 'just read putin's speech'?
"this means you will share our private messages"
Have you not also shared people's private messages, Edward? Should I cover up the truth because it is private? Should I have remained silent on the EMA's corruption because the leaks were private and marked confidential? Why would you want to keep your views secret anyway, Edward?
"your own theory is based on extremely scant evidence."
Seems like a very weak strawman, from a man entrusting Putin's speech and the comments of a Twitter poster.
Did Putin allow Russian whistleblowers to sit peacefully in exile, Edward? Didn't KGB agents travel all the way to the UK to give Litvinenko poisoned tea for simply disclosing the truth? And yet, we're supposed to believe Putin's "stab in the back" remark results in mere exile?
What's the legal punishment for treason in Russia, Edward? Is it the death penalty?
I bet it's the death penalty.
The coup is staged. I don't know why you're trying to spread FUD to the contrary.
Shameful that you are trying to dunk on me, simply for sharing my personal view, in a private conversation. I've done more than any other person writing in the English language to expose what Putin's government has done to its people over the past 2 years. I won't even type more.
Unfortunately our internet cooperation (which I considered fruitful and beneficial for both of us) ends here. Take care,
Riley
Why would you consider this dunking on you?
You took me by complete surprise by your overt and explicit trust in Putin's speech, despite publicly expressing distrust in his views, and showed a complete incuriosity in finding the truth regarding what Wagner were doing. I even asked if you could refer to me a Russian linguist and you said you were "busy", but then proceeded to wax philosophical on Twitter?
By all means you're free to boycott me for being open and honest, but I genuinely found it surprising the Edward Slavquat I knew and enjoyed was telling me to 'just read putin's speech'.
It didn't feel like a cooperation to me Edward. It felt more like I gave you insights on Russia, but when I asked for one thing to verify mainstream media reporting, I got... stonewalled?
Isn't distrust in Putin what you wanted?
Giv me ruble or I tantrum throw!
The pictures and relaxed attitude seems to be explained by popular support for Wagner:
https://roloslavskiy.substack.com/p/russians-support-wagner-actually
from the comments there, Patrick Lancaster, who has been reporting for many years from the Donbass region, films the "insurgency" at Rostov: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qvFQJEyjwA
That may explain the tenuous or loose translation of Prigozhin's Telegram interview " …there is no insurgency…"
I'm taking in all sides and not any one particular ideological angle. Maybe there's a combination of political infighting, patriots vs globalists faction conflicts, exploitation of the situation maybe by Krelmin/Putin, etc
The narrative is inconsistent, because there are roadblocks set up, along with Putin heaping praise on the military for supposedly 'stopping Wagner'. Meanwhile, the "penalty" for the supposed overthrow - yet more evidence it is staged - is... employment in Russia's MoD, or a free trip to Belarus (and the trip to Belarus doesn't even imply negative connotations).
All criminal charges dropped. If Prigozhin was "popular" he could have waltzed in, but he accepted the free trip to Belarus... because reasons?
It smells. The coup is obviously false flag. The argument also doesn't stack; if it's so safe why even bother taking tanks. But if it's unsafe, why give interviews in doorways with no helmet on, you're in a warzone.
It seems like there are lot theatrics to this which the tanks may be part of, and how it ended doesn't match the seriousness of Putin's speech at all. In terms of popularity what had been described was amongst the populous, comparing Wagner to pop-band status (hence the photo ops, etc) not political popularity, certainly not with members of the MoD. But regarding employment I wonder given what we've heard from the Russian sources translated through Rolo and Edward in the past about conscripts and competency, if this is an opportunity for Kremlin to absorb Wagner officially into the military
I think what people agree on is Russia are absorbing Wagner into the military.
They also seem to be realising that their shipping to Belarus may be a strategic move. Belarus have remarked Wagner can train their troops. It is a great way for Putin to 'disavow any and all knowledge' of their actions, whilst also maintaining the Ukrainian frontlines; essentially, delegation, of a sorts.
Russian military work on Ukraine.
Wagner work on Belarus.
What I haven't been able to verify, and keeps getting parroted a lot, is the shoot down of 8 Russian pilots. My thoughts are they 'didn't get the memo' and tried to actually engage Wagner, who supposedly have their own anti-air (I'm pretty sure Wagner don't; they were always a boots-on-the-ground soldier merc outfit). [Edit: the implication being the Russian MoD shot down the aircraft themselves lest they 'screw up the plan'.]
Putin isn't particularly bothered about the (claimed) pilot deaths, which tells me either they were a "necessary casualty" for whatever he's planning, or, given the lack of notable evidence, it simply did not happen.
I think the contrast in how Jan 6th was handled compared to this shows how suspiciously lenient the Russian government are; this is despite the fact they will dispatch whistleblowers at a moment's notice for far less.
Everything I've seen so far reinforces the false flag angle, because it has been near exclusively beneficial for Putin; control of Wagner, training for Belarus, a confused Western media.
Funny you should say this. The soldiers that didn't take part in the 'uprising', were reportedly given jobs within the MoD. The soldiers that did were simply not charged (and I presume, 'let go'?).
What's interesting is Intel Slava Z claims British Intel told Ukraine not to push a second counter-offensive during this 'coup' (see: https://t.me/intelslava/49215), which suggests they didn't think Russian resources were being divided (I.E. the frontlines were too strong to bother trying an attack).
The most plausible theory I feel fits this is that the Russian government wanted to 'fold' the Wagner group into the general Russian military, however the evidence is lacking to make a sharp conclusion on this.
Reported by many Western media outlets, disputed by his daughter.
I personally don't trust Western media reporting these days, but it'd reinforce the 'false flag to reshuffle the deck' aspect.