The Risk For World War 3 Is Higher Than It Has Ever Been
The Risk For World War 3 Is Higher Than It Has Ever Been
How the Wagner 'coup' relates, and the rising risks
The Context
Previously, The Daily Beagle wrote how the Wagner “coup” was evidently a false flag, supplying an endless array of photographic evidence, most ignored by hacks.
Armchair hypemongers insisted this was the ‘big one’, and that it’s definitely super-duper real because they saw some photographs on the Internet of explosions!
Supposedly, Russia would never publish any fake photographs, not even to trick their worst enemies, meaning Russians must have 100% for realsies died (not that military false flags ever involve any real deaths… oh wait).
This is despite the fact Russia has the phrase “Maskirovka” (маскировка; literally, ‘disguise’), which is a centuries old military doctrine equivilent to a ‘sleight-of-hand’. It’s a perfectly reasonable strategy. Search the term and you’ll find endless articles discussing it. You don’t win wars by being honest with your opponents.
We now know based on outcome, that it isn’t a real coup, because since then, nothing has happened. No punishments. No glorious overthrow. No rampant bloodshed. No raging civil war. Go home, nothing to see here.
Wagner won a free trip to Belarus, and are now happily training the Belarusian forces, and Prigozhin (the leader of Wagner) was seen at St. Petersburg at a summit hosted by Putin after the event.
Do you think the US government treats the J6 defendants the same way?
This made all the ‘this coup is definitely real you guys’ group fall awkwardly silent after their bombastic buy-in of media hype predictions didn’t materialise (get real reporting, wink).
But Why Was It Even Staged?
Plausible deniability. Obviously it is a wider part of their military strategy, and The Daily Beagle has been carefully observing to determine what that strategy is.
Let us look at the situation so far: The presence of Wagner in Belarus freaked out Poland enough they put counter-terrorism police on their borders, so obviously they have a belief Wagner may attempt to infiltrate and/or enter Poland.
Poland even asked the EU to help pay for it under fears of hybrid warfare. Poland speculates there may be a mere 8,000 Wagner troops in Belarus. Quite a big response for a mere 8k troops. There’s something they’re not telling us.
Poland have since been freaking out that Wagner is there to destabilise their country. Say what you will about other Western countries’ deceit (namely, the US), there’s something noticably genuine about Poland’s alarm, in contrast to the US’ ‘there’s no problem here’ media deceit.
This isn’t Polish paranoia either, as the Belarusian military reportedly violated Polish airspace, resulting in them deploying extra combat helicopters:
Belarus had reportedly notified Poland of this in advance — effectively verifying what Poland said — but Poland didn’t like the idea of troops hovering over their territory. Can’t say we blame them.
Then there’s that whole Belarusian spy network collecting intel on Polish ports and military facilities (translated title below):
This, of course, poses an Article 5 NATO declaration risk (shortstop: if Poland gets attacked, other NATO nations can come to Poland’s defence and we get our World War 3 boogie on).
Thankfully, no weapons have been fired, yet, but the risk is palpable. One heightened by the fact Russia also has missiles landing 200 yards from Romania’s border. Romania is also a NATO member, so if one were to go off-course or go awry, it could alter history.
Currently Russia has withdrawn almost all of their official troops from Belarus, leaving only Wagner, giving Russia some plausible deniability: ‘they’re rogue mercenaries, remember, they did a coup once, they’re not really Russian forces’.
Is the plausible denability for something Wagner plans to attempt against Poland? Who knows. Who was the staged coup supposed to fool, anyway? Obviously not the bloggers.
It is evident Russia anticipates Belarus’ involvement in the war sometime in the future, or otherwise why even bother training their troops? Why spend money training Belarusian troops you don’t intend to use when you could be training Russian ones?
Stationed Nukes
Belarus also isn’t technically part of the Ukraine war (ignore the Ukrainian propaganda). So retaliation by NATO would drag Belarus into the war. Russia obviously anticipates this possibility, having stationed missiles in Belarus.
The missiles they’ve stationed are nuclear-capable Iskander missiles (reportedly Iskander-M), and the Federation of American Scientists actually have some nice satellite photos of their deployment. Note, they’re portable, and can be moved.
The missiles have between 500 to 1,000 kilometers range (310.6 to 621.3 miles), depending on warhead load.
Using the location provided by the Federation of American Scientists — Asipovichy, Belarus — we can calculate what possible targets could be hit using the minimum range of the missile (note: this assumes unrealistic ideal conditions, and is likely less than this):
Countries it could reach (above): Latvia, Lithuania (who stripped residency permits of Russians and Belarusians in an ethnic attack), Poland, a tiny bit of Estonia, and obviously Ukraine are all within minimum range.
Maxmimum range includes: Sweden (notably including the capital city, Stockholm), Finland (including the capital Helsinki), Estonia (fully), Latvia (fully), Lithuania (fully), Ukraine (fully, except Crimea), Moldova (fully), Romania (capital Bucharest on the outskirts), Slovakia (almost fully, with capital Bratislava in range), Poland (fully), Germany (almost the capital, Berlin), Czech Republic (half), Austria (with the capital Vienna just barely outside) and Hungary (with the capital, Budapest, in range).
That’s quite the coverage!
Directed Outside Of Ukraine
And before individuals think it is primarily for Ukraine, Putin issued an address where he presented conditions for the withdrawal of nukes from Belarus, namely, that the US withdraw all their nukes from Europe. Notice it has nothing relating to Ukraine?
It is evident, therefore, the main focus of the move is the United States, not Ukraine. That is to say, a wider war.
This comes as part of the war spills over into Russian territory, as a result of the NATO shipped weaponry. For example, Russia are now training civilians in the Belgorod region to repel attacks at the border (why aren’t Wagner training these?):
A second Ukrianian drone strike hit Moscow offices, as well as a strike on a Russian navy ship outside a Russian oil export port. Whilst it is obviously just pot shots at the moment, the war is clearly spilling over into Russia.
From a World War 3 trigger standpoint, this increases the risks of nuclear war, as Russia has also threatened to use nuclear weapons if they lose Russian land.
It is unclear if this means original Russian territories (including Crimea) pre-Ukraine war, or the newly acquired land during the Ukraine war. After all, Russia does think 4 territories are their own.
There’s also a question of what they define as ‘land being taken away’; do they mean a Ukrainian beachhead holding a small area, a large area being destroyed (but not occupied), or a large occupational force?
Even now, the US seeks to arm Taiwan from the Ukrainian budget, which may also push the Chinese over the edge and into war.
Either way, the risk for World War 3 has been higher than it has ever been.
Stay safe, dear reader.
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What if #101- Russian intelligence discovered Polish/NATO FF plans for August 5th & Wagner is in Belarus legally, just to say checkmate, we're watching you. Belarus supplied Poles with flight route data of the helicopter- close, but no cigar.