Russia's Low Key Threat To Israel
Reading between the lines leads to a hostile disagreement
Russian government run (according to their descriptor) Intel Slava Z wrote a report on Vladimir Putin’s meeting with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, of which they claim to quote Boris Rozhin.
Of the 5 points they list, point 4 is perhaps the most explosive, because Russia’s growling at Israel is distinct, to the point Russia makes the “hints” as un-subtle as possible. Quoting the entirety of point 4 for context:
4. Regarding the procurement of weapons from each other, there are no obstacles in fact for this. Iran's official position not to supply weapons to the conflict zone may well be the subject of negotiations and a cover for informal contacts regarding the supply of Iranian reconnaissance and strike UAVs and barrage ammunition for the needs of the Russian Armed Forces. Iran, in turn, is interested in the supply of modern air defense systems and fighter jets, which it will need in the event of a decision to finalize the nuclear program and protect against attempts by Israel and the United States to strike Iran. After the lifting of the UN Security Council weapons sanctions, Russia has the right to supply Iran with any conventional weapons, and this factor is certainly used in negotiations with Israel in the context of restrictions on the supply of Israeli weapons to Ukraine (relatively speaking, if you start supplying drones to Ukraine, Iran will have new modern air defense systems).
Now, don’t worry if your eyes glossed over from the wall of text, as The Daily Beagle will break it down. We’re only quoting it in whole so you can verify what we’re saying in our analysis with the full context.
The first aspect to note is this line:
Russia has the right to supply Iran with any conventional weapons, and this factor is certainly used in negotiations with Israel in the context of restrictions on the supply of Israeli weapons to Ukraine
Essentially, Russia is growling and saying ‘Israel, stop arming and equipping our Nazi enemies in Ukraine’. This actually shows a major pivot in Russian diplomacy because it looks like Russia are tired of playing one-way diplomatic ball games with Israel at their own expense and are willing to threaten to contradict major Israeli policy points in relation with Iran to get back at them.
Russia even identify explicitly what Iran are after, what it entails, and why:
Iran, in turn, is interested in the supply of modern air defense systems and fighter jets, which it will need in the event of a decision to finalize the nuclear program and protect against attempts by Israel and the United States to strike Iran.
Essentially, Russia is being explicit in the causation of consequences. ‘If you don’t stop shipping weapons to Ukraine, we will empower Iran to defend itself and their nuclear programme that you are so afraid of’.
Point 3 offers additional insights, quoting fully for context:
3. Of course, Russia will not significantly interfere with Iran in any way to play its nuclear card, especially since Iran has already openly stated that, if necessary, it will reach the level of uranium enrichment to 90% within a couple of weeks, but it is not doing this yet due to the continuation of negotiations on a nuclear deal. In the current conditions, the failure of the nuclear deal prevents the West from providing wider access to Iranian oil to the world markets, which is beneficial for the Russian energy strategy in the confrontation with the West.
Russia adds additional context, adding how the nuclear deal falling through would be to Russia’s advantage:
[…] the failure of the nuclear deal prevents the West from providing wider access to Iranian oil to the world markets, which is beneficial for the Russian energy strategy […]
Russia even notes it will not “interfere” with Iran’s nuclear program (read: they aren’t going to attempt to stop it like the US and Europe are):
Russia will not significantly interfere with Iran in any way to play its nuclear card […]
It even adds a layer of tension on thick by saying Iran could enrich within weeks:
[…] it will reach the level of uranium enrichment to 90% within a couple of weeks […]
Essentially, Russia are saying to Israel ‘we’ve got a lot of incentive to make sure this deal fails, Iran are really close to making nuclear enrichment and you’re being evil enough to arm our enemies in Ukraine, why should we stop Iran from succeeding?’
This is a major pivot moment, because it marks a systemic change from Russia openly supporting Israel, to Russia proactively moving to impede Israel’s secretive goals if Israel doesn’t stop messing Russia around.
It means Israel are no longer calling the shots in Russia. This has a conga-line effect, because anyone aligned with Russia is likely going to have to follow suit. It may even mean other nations also stand up to the one-way abusive relationship by Israel following Russia’s lead.
This could be a major turning point in the war. How desperately do Israel want to keep arming Ukrainians versus their aggression against Iran?
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